Garston and Halewood
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"Britain was wrong to leave the EU" - Agree or disagree?
People should be able to identify as being of a different gender to the one they had recorded at birth"
"It should be made easier for transgender people to change their legal gender"
"Transgender women should be allowed to use spaces reserved for women, such as women's toilets or changing rooms"
"Transgender women should be allowed to take part in women's sporting events"
"The world is controlled by a secretive elite"
"Immigration levels are too high"
Cost of living
"I worry about affording basic necessities, such as food and energy"
"I want house prices to come down"
"The Government spends too much time on green issues"
"It’s a good thing Britain has a monarchy"
"In retrospect, lockdowns were a mistake"
"Frankly, there is no political party I actually like"
Focaldata specialises in mapping opinion poll data onto smaller geographic areas, using a technique known as MRP, or Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification. For this study we collected data from 10,009 respondents between 12th and 16th December 2022 using Focaldata’s online platform. While this does not yield enough observations in individual constituencies to treat the data as separate constituency polls, we can look for patterns in responses across constituencies that have similar characteristics, and then work out the implications of those patterns for each constituency.
This technique of “multilevel regression and post-stratification” or MRP is the same approach used by Focaldata to predict Vote Intention in Westminster constituencies. Focaldata’s MRP model uses age, gender, education, working status, VoteGE2019, referendum vote, religion and housing tenure as individual-level predictors in the model. It also uses population density, % born in the UK, and % gross income median. We used a Bayesian exploded logit model, which is fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open-source software Stan.
NOTE: These estimates include the 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, but not the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland.